Slowdown - the end of the Great Accelaration - and Why it's Good for the Planet, the Economy and Our Lives

Slowdown by Danny Dorling

Published by Yale University Press      Price - £18.99

 

This book from Professor Danny Dorling presents a fascinating thesis, namely that everything is slowing down. The world is not catapulting ever more rapidly towards the end but is instead slowing to a new phase of equilibrium.

The only areas found not to be slowing are carbon emissions and temperature, which continue to accelerate upwards.

Dorling looks at a whole variety of areas including the size of debt, fertility rates, population, gross domestic product and the size of cities, all of which are falling.

The book offers a challenge to those who argue that the continued expansion of the world at US levels would require five planets to sustain. Dorling suggests that this expansion is just not happening but in fact there is contraction almost across the board, which will lead to a very different world in the future.

The focus is on five generational groups which he titles V (1901 to 1928), W (1929 to 1955), X (1956 to 1981), Y (1982 to 2011) and Z (2012 to 2042). There has been vast change across these generations but there will be far less discernible change for those in the latter two groups of Y and Z, than previous generations.

Dorling defines capitalism as a transitional mode rather than a state of being with no end. He sees capitalism as coming to an end, having brought vast change inside a relatively short period of time, though he does not say when that end maybe.

The one exception to the slowdown rule is climate, which saw the level of CO2 put into the atmosphere rise from 4.8 billion metric tonne in 1950 to 9.64 metric tonnes a year in 1960. Between 1942 and 1960, some 123 billion metric tonnes of CO2 were put into the atmosphere, the equivalent of what had been produced in the preceding 2.5 centuries.

Interestingly, Dorling also bursts the bubble of those who claim that population growth is fuelling climate change. He highlights how between 1920 and 1940 pollution rose most in the countries, where the population increased the least. The link between population and emissions comes down to unequal societies, where the demands of a few rich people - and the resulting technology - reeks  the most climatic havoc on the planet.

Other climate related areas on the increase include the destruction of biodiversity and plane flights. Flights going from fewer than 1 billion in 1971, through 2 billion in 1989 to 4 billion per year in 2017.

Dorling brings together a wealth of data across many areas of life to argue his thesis that in the main things are slowing down. Each part of the argument is accompanied by a graph showing the changes, which helps the reader understand what could otherwise become a tide of overwhelming statistics.

Many of the improvements in the world are coming about due to a greater equality and the growing power and influence of women across the spectrum, from progressive female political leaders to the growing impact of reproductive rights.

The big challenge is climate change, which Dorling does not suggest an answer to, though does seem confident that with the advance of progressive forces together with self-interest can be overcome.

A very interesting read, throwing up all sorts of questions, as well as offering an upbeat view on the future of the world