The world is slowing down in almost every way, with the exception being climate change, where emissions and temperature are accelerating at a destructive rate.
That is the conclusion of Professor Danny Dorling, who in his latest book Slowdown, claims that everything is doing just that. The world is not catapulting ever more rapidly towards the end but is instead slowing to a new phase of equilibrium.
Dorling looks at a whole variety of areas including the size of debt, fertility rates, population, gross domestic product and the size of cities, all of which are falling.
The focus is on five generational groups which he titles V (1901 to 1928), W (1929 to 1955), X (1956 to 1981), Y (1982 to 2011) and Z (2012 to 2042). There has been vast change across these generations but there will be far less discernible change for those in the latter two groups of Y and Z, than previous generations.
Dorling defines the present system as transitional mode, rather than a state of being with no end.
The one exception to the slowdown rule is climate, which saw the level of CO2 put into the atmosphere rise from 4.8 billion metric tonne in 1950 to 9.64 metric tonnes a year in 1960. Between 1942 and 1960, some 123 billion metric tonnes of CO2 were put into the atmosphere, the equivalent of what had been produced in the preceding 2.5 centuries.
Interestingly, Dorling also bursts the bubble of those who claim that population growth is fuelling climate change. He highlights how between 1920 and 1940 pollution rose most in the countries, where the population increased the least. The link between population and emissions comes down to unequal societies, where the demands of a few rich people - and the resulting technology - wreaks the most climatic havoc on the planet.
Other climate related areas on the increase include the destruction of biodiversity and plane flights. Flights going from fewer than 1 billion in 1971, through 2 billion in 1989 to 4 billion per year in 2017.
The book was ofcourse written pre-Corona pandemic. The pandemic has brought a slowdown way beyond anything Dorling foresaw.
Among the positive elements has been the big reduction in carbon emissions, with flights virtually grounded.
The Slowdown analysis offers useful background for countries coming out of pandemic. Though tragic in so many ways, the pandemic does offer a chance to restart the system in a better way. Things like the reduction in carbon emissions need to be retained moving forward, The new normal must be a low carbon sustainable way of life.
Dorling found that many of the improvements in the world are coming about due to a greater equality and the growing power and influence of women across the spectrum, particularly with progressive female political leaders.
This point has been reinforced in the pandemic, with the countries doing best being those led by progressive women leaders like New Zealand’s Jacinta Ardern and Germany’s Angela Merkell.
So there is all to play for coming out of the pandemic – the chance to create a better, safer, more equal sustainable world.
*Slowdown by Professor Danny Dorling is published by Yale University Press
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