Slowdown - the end of the Great Accelaration - and Why it's Good for the Planet, the Economy and Our Lives

Slowdown by Danny Dorling

Published by Yale University Press      Price - £18.99

 

This book from Professor Danny Dorling presents a fascinating thesis, namely that everything is slowing down. The world is not catapulting ever more rapidly towards the end but is instead slowing to a new phase of equilibrium.

The only areas found not to be slowing are carbon emissions and temperature, which continue to accelerate upwards.

Dorling looks at a whole variety of areas including the size of debt, fertility rates, population, gross domestic product and the size of cities, all of which are falling.

The book offers a challenge to those who argue that the continued expansion of the world at US levels would require five planets to sustain. Dorling suggests that this expansion is just not happening but in fact there is contraction almost across the board, which will lead to a very different world in the future.

The focus is on five generational groups which he titles V (1901 to 1928), W (1929 to 1955), X (1956 to 1981), Y (1982 to 2011) and Z (2012 to 2042). There has been vast change across these generations but there will be far less discernible change for those in the latter two groups of Y and Z, than previous generations.

Dorling defines capitalism as a transitional mode rather than a state of being with no end. He sees capitalism as coming to an end, having brought vast change inside a relatively short period of time, though he does not say when that end maybe.

The one exception to the slowdown rule is climate, which saw the level of CO2 put into the atmosphere rise from 4.8 billion metric tonne in 1950 to 9.64 metric tonnes a year in 1960. Between 1942 and 1960, some 123 billion metric tonnes of CO2 were put into the atmosphere, the equivalent of what had been produced in the preceding 2.5 centuries.

Interestingly, Dorling also bursts the bubble of those who claim that population growth is fuelling climate change. He highlights how between 1920 and 1940 pollution rose most in the countries, where the population increased the least. The link between population and emissions comes down to unequal societies, where the demands of a few rich people - and the resulting technology - reeks  the most climatic havoc on the planet.

Other climate related areas on the increase include the destruction of biodiversity and plane flights. Flights going from fewer than 1 billion in 1971, through 2 billion in 1989 to 4 billion per year in 2017.

Dorling brings together a wealth of data across many areas of life to argue his thesis that in the main things are slowing down. Each part of the argument is accompanied by a graph showing the changes, which helps the reader understand what could otherwise become a tide of overwhelming statistics.

Many of the improvements in the world are coming about due to a greater equality and the growing power and influence of women across the spectrum, from progressive female political leaders to the growing impact of reproductive rights.

The big challenge is climate change, which Dorling does not suggest an answer to, though does seem confident that with the advance of progressive forces together with self-interest can be overcome.

A very interesting read, throwing up all sorts of questions, as well as offering an upbeat view on the future of the world

Corona virus exposes a society that knows the cost of everything but the value of nothing

There was an interesting recent Facebook posting that juxtaposed a nurse alongside an international celebrity. Above the pictures were the income of the two individuals – the nurse earning £25k, the celebrity £72 million. Underneath the pictures were the captions priceless and pointless.

The post summarised a truth that many people are coming to realise, which is just how screwed up the values of our society have become. NHS staff, care workers, haulage drivers, shop staff, bus drivers and refuse collectors are the people who really count when something like the Corona virus hits. They are the ones putting their lives on the line, whilst others sit helpless at home.

Some would argue it has always been thus. I always remember my Dad saying how a lot of people believed after the war that people who did work that was important for society would be rewarded.

Jobs like teaching, healthcare, social care, policing and the fire service. Unfortunately, it never happened. Instead, jobs that really aren’t that important in the greater scheme of things were rewarded with huge pay cheques.

Footballers have come under the spotlight during the present crisis, with their multi-million salaries. Though it is the clubs that should receive the major criticism, as some have tried to avoid paying salaries to their non-paying staff, whilst continuing to pay the millions to the players, who have not kicked a ball in weeks.

But there can be too much focus on football, what of the hedge fund managers, money market dealers and billionaire businessmen, who no doubt are working at this very time  to see just how much money they can make out of this crisis. People who go out of their way to avoid paying the taxes required to pay for all those vital services that are keeping the rest of us alive at the moment.

Once this crisis is over there need to be a reckoning as to just what and who we do value as a society. The key workers mentioned earlier need to be paid properly and put on stable secure contracts. Contracts that provide security for them and their families. Not the zero hour contracts that are so commonplace in the care sector at the moment.

The crisis provides an opportunity for all of us to reflect on our own personal lives but also what sort of society we want to see in the future. Hopefully, a society that values people for themselves and what they do. A society that works for the common good of all, not one based on bottom line economics.

Public need to see an exit strategy to get out of Corona virus pandemic

The Corona virus emergency has dramatically changed everybody’s life in the UK over recent weeks.

The government has ramped up its response to the crisis. First, it seemed set to let the virus infect the population, with a view to developing herd immunity, as more people got over the disease.

This idea was rejected, as evidence from around the world made it obvious that Corona spreads so quickly that it overwhelms normal health systems.

 There were warnings from the Prime Minister to keep a distance and self isolate, if any one had symptoms. Pubs, restaurants and places of entertainment were then shut down, as it became clear that people were not abiding by the distancing rules and such places would be prime areas for transmission of the disease. Then came the lockdown on 23 March, confining people to their houses, except for key work, shopping and medicine collection and exercise.

People have largely complied with these demands. There has been much made in the media about the few who have not, treating the population rather like a bunch of errant school children, continually needing to be lectured by teacher. However, the vast majority have complied.

The lockdown though is not an answer to the pandemic, it is merely a holding strategy, allowing the NHS staff to get on top of the problem – reducing the numbers coming to the hospitals to manageable levels.

There have been problems, with getting the protective equipment to the front line of the health crisis. This needs resolution. NHS staff are doing a fantastic job on behalf of us all, the least that can be expected is that they have the right protective equipment to do the job and save their own lives.

A further key part of the strategy to overcome Corona is testing. The UK has tested but at nothing like the levels of Germany, which has many cases but lower death rates. Health secretary Matt Hancock committed to 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month. This shows the sort of prioritisation required because without mass testing, there will be no overall picture of who has got over the virus, who has had it and who has never had it.

It is one of the anomalies of the situation in the UK that the authorities do not seem able to provide any sort of statistics as to who has got over the disease. Other countries from Iran to the US have been able to provide some numbers.

Testing is so key because it can tell everyone what is going on. There is no point in having people who have had Corona and recovered sitting at home under lockdown, when they could be out helping others or getting back to work. Equally, those who haven’t had the disease need to be protected.

So these tests need to happen and quickly. The lockdown may be helping clinicians to get on top of the pandemic but it is not a cost free exercise. We do not want to replace a Corona virus pandemic with a mental health catastrophe.

There have been dramatic rises already in the levels of domestic abuse going on. Other abuse also seems likely. So just locking people down is something that can only be sustained for a relatively short period. It also has to be done by consent. It is all very well, continually frightening people with the consequences of mixing and spreading the virus but this approach adds to anxieties and mental health concerns – especially with the old, isolated and vulnerable.

The great thing about the public response to the pandemic has been how it has brought people together in communities to help each other out. The myriad support groups across the country, right across the generations. There is a monumental effort going on to protect life and overcome virus but people also need to be sure that the strategy is working. This will only happen, with a properly outlined exit strategy of which mass testing has to be a key part.

Just so long as people are convinced that we are on the right path that will bring the country out of this disaster all will continue to pull together. This can be done but only with mass testing and proper protection of those key workers playing such a key role in bringing us through the crisis.

Corona virus shows what a real emergency looks like...now let's address climate change

The Corona virus outbreak has turned life upside down in countries across the world. It has brought unprecedented restrictions on normal life, forcing people to stay at home, distance and isolate.

The present state we find ourselves in also shows people exactly what an emergency looks like. The whole workings of society have been mobilised to counter the threat of the virus. No business as usual, no waiting till the money is available to act – the actions have been taken immediately as a matter of life and death.

Many people have said life will never be the same, once the virus has passed. This maybe true, it should be true. There is ofcourse always the danger that things will return to business as usual, with this period being viewed as an aberration, unlikely to occur again for some time. It could also mean a doubling up of destructive processes to make up for the time lost during the crisis.

This would be a very stupid position to adopt. Lessons need to be learned, life cannot go on as before.

One of the positive developments coming out of the measures taken to counter the virus has been the drop in pollution and emissions – largely due to much of the environmentally damaging activity undertaken on a daily basis having stopped.

A somewhat revealing statistic that puts things in perspective comes from China, where 3,500 people died due to the virus but it is said 50,000 didn’t die due to the drop in pollution levels caused by the economic slowdown.

Fish have returned to the waterways of Venice for the first time in decades. There are many other benefits that have come for the environment because the economic  juggernaut has slowed allowing the earth to breath.

Moving forward to the time after the virus, the same urgency applied to the Corona emergency needs transferring to other threats facing humanity like climate change, pollution and biodiversity destruction.

The positives for addressing these issues for having several months of business not as usual need to be learned and built upon. The economic model must change and change quickly to one that promotes sustainable living and outlaws environmentally destructive practices.

Government at all levels has seen an emergency and just what can be done to address it. Time to transfer the means and approach onto environmental matters, not put them on the back burner to a day when things can be afforded.

People will have learned much about themselves and ways of living over this period. Things will change, hopefully for the better. They certainly need to alter for the common good. If the Corona virus has taught nothing else it must be the importance of living in harmony with nature and coming together in community to confront adversity at maximum times of trouble.

published - Wanstead and woodford Guardian - 9/4/2020

Brilliant historical story telling from Hilary Mantel as she completes her Thomas Cromwell trilogy with the Mirror and the Light

The Mirror and the Light by Hilary Mantel

Published by Fourth Estate  Price - £25

Hilary Mantel has produced a brilliant book to complete her trilogy of works looking at the life of Thomas Cromwell and Tudor politics.

This book takes Cromwell from the height of his powers in 1536, being awarded the order of the garter by Henry VIII and extensive lands across the country, to the executioners block in the summer of 1540.

Mantel takes the reader through all the different twists and turns of being a major political manipulator at the heart of Tudor politics. Cromwell’s constant battle against the old order, the noble class, who view him as of low birth and never really one of them.

The belief amongst the likes of the Duke of Norfolk Thomas Howard, Bishop of Winchester Stephen Gardiner and others from the old Catholic families that Cromwell is working his way through them, seeking to replace the old order, with others from lower classes. It seems pretty likely that this was exactly what he was doing, though, whether the ermine clad minister was quite the rebel spirit that Mantel portrays is a matter for historical debate.

Whilst the intrigues unvail, at the centre of the action the whole time is the volatile nature of Henry. Everything in the end is reliant on keeping the King happy. Once the wind changes, death seems to beckon.

It is fascinating to get such a deep insight into what made the politics of the time tick, with a sometimes surprising class dimension.

The importance that the King produced an heir, then the clamour for a spare. The marriages made amongst royalty across Europe, predominantly for diplomatic reasons. Though, when the King does not like the match that can be curtains for the chief advisor, as Cromwell found.

Mantel is clearly a Cromwell fan, yet she does also reveal him as a not particularly likeable human being in many ways. He is a product of his life’s journey, which she regularly tells, with a series of flashbacks to his early years in Putney. The brutality of his father, Walter, who whilst despised by Cromwell has clearly bequeathed a strong genealogical inheritance. Walter features much in the tale as execution beckons.

Mantel goes into great detail in the book, some might say too much in places, as she painstakingly describes a piece of clothing, a plate or meal that is about to be consumed. But the book is a masterclass in historical story telling. It lays out the scene, blood and guts as well as the splendour of court life.

No doubt the work will transfer to stage and screen in a similarly successful way to the earlier novels Wolf Hall and Bring up the Bodies. There is certainly plenty of scope to draw out excellent screen and stage plays from the rich contents of this book. It is a book that draws the reader in to such a degree that there is real disappointment that it is over come the end. 

If the author is looking for a new project, then she could do worse that jump forward 100 years, when the King's power is finally stripped, with Charles I going to the block. The Mirror and the Light shows some of the fundamentals being put in place that did eventually lead to the later civil war and English Revolution.

Coming together

Good to hear the Queen hitting a consensual note in her broadcast last night. We need more of this approach, less frightening and threatening of the people.

The government needs to start fulfilling its part of the bargain, which is providing the protective equipment needed by the NHS and care workers and upping testing to German levels - it has singularly failed to deliver on these elements to date.

published - Independent - 6/4/2020

Response to Corona virus marks the first time people have been put ahead of profit

The outbreak of the Corona virus has and will raise fundamental questions over the way society is run and what really matters.

The disproportionate number of the elderly and vulnerable who have become the victims says something.

This group will always be the most vulnerable to illness and need most care but are they really valued? It is interesting that in Germany this group has not been so severely hit, so does that mean Germany values older and vulnerable people more? Does Germany just care more about people than profits?

For a long time in this country, there seems to have been a devaluation in the concept of the sanctity of life. Life has been increasingly evaluated according to how useful an individual is to the economic system. The less valuable elements of society in terms of their use to the economic wheel have been increasingly regarded as second-class citizens.

So the elderly have been penalised, with reduced pensions, the extension of retirement age and though not acknowledged officially, in some instances, second class health care.

This attitude has been fuelled over recent years with a narrative in the media that because the older generation have it all, younger generations are missing out. The construct is wholly untrue, as poverty knows no age boundaries.

What has been needed is intergenerational solidarity, the cuts imposed due to austerity have hit young and old alike. The two groups are reliant on each other. The elderly do a huge amount of unpaid childcare for their grandchildren. This service has been exposed during the Corona virus, with the two generations having to be kept apart.

The Corona virus has brought a real wake up call. Initially, it appeared some sort of weird eugenic inspired thinking was going on, that said let the virus run, with the weak and vulnerable going to the wall.

Fortunately, this was quickly rejected, with health and well-being given priority over all else. For the first time since the Second World War, the health and welfare of all people has been put ahead of economic consideration.

The massive response from the public coming out selflessly to support neighbours in this crisis has been something to behold. It has marked the triumph of community over individualism. This huge outpouring has helped push the humanitarian over economic based response.

When the crisis is over, we must not forget exactly what was done to confront it. The reconnection of community must not be lost. There will be a whole new canvass for dealing with other problems such as climate change, world poverty and inequality. There must be no return to the austerity based policies that reduced the resource of our public services at a critical time. The mobilisation for the Corona virus proves what can be done to deal with life threatening problems if the political will is there.